Will Nifty slip below 18,000? What would be the new level?

What will be the next move 

of the market?

Posted by : NILESH WAGHELA 

The bulls were stunned and the bears rejoiced by the sudden and unexpected blow of a report that feared a possible side effect that  HDFC and HDFC Bank's merger may result in outflow of around $150-200 million. Now the question is, will Nifty slip below 18,000?...and what will be the next level?

Benchmark indices NSE Nifty and BSE Sensex ended the last trading session of the week deeply in the red, dragged by HDFC twins. The NSE Nifty 50 crashed 186.8 points or 1.02% to 18,069.00 and BSE Sensex tanked 694.96 or 1.13% to 61,054.29. 

In sectoral indices, Bank Nifty plunged 1,024.25 points or 2.34% to 42,661.2 and Nifty Financial Services 455.5 points or 2.34% to 19,023.85. The top gainers on Nifty 50 were Titan, Maruti, UltraTech Cement, Nestle and Apollo Hospital while the losers were HDFC Bank, HDFC, IndusInd Bank, Hindalco and Tata Steel.

Let's check what experts say about future possibilities for market trend and levels of Nifty and Bank nifty. “On the daily charts, we can observe a negative divergence, indicating a loss of momentum on the upside. We believe that the Nifty has completed a five-wave advance at yesterday’s high of 18268 and now we shall expect a 38.2% retracement of the rally from 16828 – 18268 hence we change our short-term outlook on the Nifty to negative for a target of 17800 which coincides with the 20-day moving average. On the weekly time frame, the Nifty has formed a Shooting Star candle stick pattern with bearish implications. Thus, we expect weakness in the short term. In terms of levels, 18220–18250 is the immediate hurdle zone while 17885–17850 can act as a support zone from a short-term perspective,” said Jatin Gedia, Technical Research Analyst, Sharekhan by BNP Paribas.

“Despite weak global markets, Indian equities remained resilient on the back of positive economic data, Healthy Q4FY23 results, and FIIs turning net buyers. FIIs bought more than Rs10k in the last six trading sessions. After the sharp rise in the last few days, Nifty is now consolidating around 18,000-18,200 zones. While the overall market structure remains positive, expect Nifty to consolidate in the near term on the back of subdued global cues and profit booking in index heavyweights. Next week market would also take cues from inflation, state election outcome and ongoing earning season,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.

Bank Nifty may fall to 42500-42300 if it sustains below 43000:  “Bank Nifty bears took over the control and the index fell by more than 2% breaking the support of the 43,000-42,800 zone. The index if sustained below 43000 will witness further correction towards the 42,500-42,300 zone where the next demand area is visible. The upside resistance of 43,000 if taken out decisively will lead to further short covering toward 43,300 levels,” said Kunal Shah, Senior Technical & Derivatives Analyst at LKP Securities.